Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic

On Sunday, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic announced that his country had agreed to a new three-year gas supply deal with Russia’s state energy provider Gazprom. 

The news came at an awkward time, and in doing so, Vucic created a fresh headache for the Western anti-Putin alliance and, notably, for the European Union.

On the other side of the continent, EU heads of state were mired in grueling negotiations over a sixth package of sanctions against Moscow. The final deal, announced late Monday, includes a partial ban on Russian oil imports to the bloc.

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But Brussels was forced to make an exemption for oil that is imported to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic via a pipeline, in order to get everyone on board. This was seen by some EU members as a major concession.

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While Serbia is not an EU member state, it is part of an EU enlargement plan that also includes some of its neighbors. The EU is set on expanding to the east and sees the Western Balkans as key to European security — even more so in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Of these Balkan states, Serbia in particular is seen as crucial for numerous reasons.

Its size, population and geographical location all make it a major stakeholder in the geopolitics of the region. If you want to have a conversation about the future of Bosnia or Kosovo, you are going to need the Serbian government in the room.

However, Serbia is also very reliant on Russia when it comes to gas. It is also militarily cooperative with Moscow. In short, Serbia benefits enormously from its relationship with Russia, and even if it obtains EU membership down the road, it will not want to burn its bridges with the Kremlin.

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