A supply crunch triggered by the Iran war has tested the resilience of emerging Liquefied Petroleum Gas (cooking gas) markets across sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria suffering the sharpest disruption as import constraints and lower domestic production pushed demand down by almost 23 per cent.
This was disclosed in a latest report by energy intelligence provider Argus, which said African LPG markets had largely withstood the price volatility and global supply tightness caused by the conflict, although the disruption exposed vulnerabilities in some of the region’s nascent markets.
Nigeria, the region’s largest LPG consumer, recorded the most severe impact, with demand falling to a seven-month low of 123,000 tonnes in June, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.
The decline represented an almost 23 per cent drop from the March level. Argus reported that domestic production also fell by more than 20 per cent during the period, following lower output from inland gas processing plants and maintenance at the Dangote refinery’s 218,000 barrels-per-day residual fluid catalytic cracker.
The supply shortfall prompted Nigerian LPG operators to increase imports. Argus reported that imports surged to a six-month high of 46,000 tonnes in June, compared with 3,000 tonnes in May and no imports in April.
The market subsequently received some relief after international LPG prices declined following the United States-Iran peace deal in June and weaker competition from Asian buyers.
The Argus butane West Africa index fell by more than 40 per cent to $513.50 per tonne on June 24, from a March peak of $860.50. The lower prices, it was learnt, helped the Nigerian market move to a 30,000-tonne surplus after four consecutive months of deficit.
Local production also rebounded in July, helping to ease the pressure on the market. Supplies from the Dangote refinery increased by 71 per cent to 25,800 tonnes, while supplies from gas processing plants rose by 88 per cent to 47,000 tonnes.
The improved domestic supply allowed Nigeria to cut imports just as hostilities between the United States and Iran resumed and international LPG prices began to rise again.
The supply recovery also brought some relief to consumers. Nigeria’s average LPG retail price fell by 10 per cent month-on-month to N1,491.75 per kilogramme in July, while demand increased by seven per cent to 136,500 tonnes, marking the first increase since March.
Elsewhere in the region, Ghana also faced tighter LPG supplies as seaborne imports fell by almost a third year-on-year to about 24,000 tonnes per month between April and August, according to vessel-tracking firm Kpler.
The reduction in imports pushed Ghana’s LPG stocks down by more than three-quarters to 5,500 tonnes in early July, equivalent to about eight days of consumption.
However, higher domestic production helped cushion the impact, with much of the additional supply coming from the new 40,000 barrels-per-day Sentuo refinery, which Argus said was operating at full capacity.
A planned restart of the residual fluid catalytic cracker at the 45,000 barrels-per-day Tema refinery is expected to further increase Ghana’s local LPG supply.
Despite the supply pressure, Ghana’s LPG consumption rose by almost 11 per cent year-on-year to 96,000 tonnes in the second quarter, although this represented a significant slowdown from the 24 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter.
Kenya also recorded continued growth in LPG demand, although at a slower pace. Demand increased by nearly five per cent year-on-year to 125,000 tonnes between April and June, compared with 18 per cent growth in the first quarter.
Seaborne LPG imports into Kenya rose by 15 per cent to 53,000 tonnes per month during the first eight months of 2026, following the opening of Tanzanian company Lake Gas’ 10,000-tonne Vipingo LPG terminal last year.
The increased competition among importers helped contain price increases, with the retail price of a 13kg LPG cylinder rising by just over 11 per cent to 3,471 Kenyan shillings between March and June.
Argus noted that the supply disruptions had occurred against the backdrop of a continuing expansion of LPG infrastructure across sub-Saharan Africa. Tanzanian company Taifa Gas is close to completing a 30,000-tonne LPG terminal at Mombasa, Kenya, which will be capable of receiving very large gas carriers.
Lake Gas also plans to add 15,000 tonnes of storage capacity at its Vipingo terminal by September 2027. According to Argus LPG World, 10 projects are expected to add more than 180,000 tonnes of LPG storage capacity across the region by 2028.
In Cameroon, the state-owned Société Camerounaise de Dépôts Pétroliers increased storage capacity at its Douala terminal by 1,000 tonnes this summer, taking capacity to 3,500 tonnes. Another 2,000-tonne storage sphere is under construction.
