As the African Democratic Party, ADC may have secured a temporary relief to be on the presidential ballot next year following last Thursday’s Supreme Court ruling, the party is however facing what many call its most delicate challenge — choosing one candidate from a crowded field of heavyweights.
Names linked to the race are former Anambra State Governor and 2023 Labour Party Presidential Candidate, Mr Peter Obi; 2019 and 2023 PDP Presidential Candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; former Kano Governor Senator, Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso; former Rivers State Governor and Transportation Minister, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi; and Mohammed Hayyatu-Deen.
Each commands a regional base. Each has loyalists. Each believes he can win.
The danger for ADC is simple: if the primary becomes bitter, losers may walk away — repeating the old Nigerian opposition cycle.
And unlike in the past, those who walk away may not have a platform to contest given the INEC’s tight timelines and provisions of the 2026 Electoral Act.
To be able to contest on any party’s platform, your name must be on the membership register to be submitted on May 10, exactly eight days from today.
Currently, underground moves in the ADC have produced two tendencies. While some are rooting for Obi/Kwankwaso presidential ticket, some are for Atiku/Makinde or Atiku/Amaechi ticket.
Last week ADC top shots including Atiku, Obi, Amaechi, Mark, and Aregbesola met him in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital for a summit.
After the summit, they pledged to present a single candidate against Tinubu, next year.
Who is this single, consensus or joint candidate? That is the tough nut ADC and opposition leaders must crack urgently to beat INEC’s deadline.
Strength of aspirants
Peter Obi
Atiku Abubakar
Experienced and nationally known, with deep networks. Yet age, repeated bids and fatigue narrative remain hurdles.
Kwankwaso
Strong Kano base and disciplined following. But national spread remains limited unless alliances deepen.
Seen as experienced and combative. Needs mass emotional connection and stronger grassroots momentum.
Based on their current rating, some insiders favour an Obi/Kwakwanso ticket, which they claimed is “making the presidency jittery.” According to them, the ticket enjoys the backing of many youths, professionals and retired generals across the country.
However, the Atiku/Makinde or Atiku/Amaechi is said to have attracted the support of some ADC leaders from the South-West and the North and may prevail in the event of direct primaries.
Dark horse option
Coalition of strange bedfellows
ADC has become home to politicians from the PDP, APC, Labour Party and smaller blocs. While this broadens reach, it also deepens suspicion.
Many grassroots members fear old political habits may swallow the new coalition before it matures.
Destabilisation of opposition parties
Across political circles, there is growing talk that opposition parties are being weakened through defections, litigation and internal crises.
The Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, on Thursday, told a Federal High reasons the ADC, Accord and three other parties should be deregistered by INEC in a suit filed by former legislators forum of the All Progressives Congress, APC. The reasons include poor performance at elections.
In like manner, Labour Party is still battling leadership storms. ADC itself has only just emerged from court. To many observers, the fragmentation and upwelling crises in the opposition parties benefit the ruling APC.
Search for platform
Saturday Vanguard gathered that some top presidential aspirants, wary of the alleged Presidency’s plot to stop the ADC from being on the ballot in 2027, are ‘quietly’ discussing with some “smaller but promising” opposition parties such as the People’s Redemption Party, PRP, and National Democratic Congress, NDC.
The real test
For now, David Mark has won the first court battle. Whether ADC can win the political war of 2027 is the question before Nigeria.
