Abasifreke Effiong

I have read a number of stories, “analyses” and opinions on the Appeal Court judgment in Senator Godswill Akpabio and Senator Chris Ekpenyong’s case after the court ordered a rerun in Essien Udim local government area as part of its judgment on the Ikot Ekpene (Akwa Ibom North West) senatorial district election. I had to cut short my long leave of not writing on political issues after reading a story on the case published by The Nation newspaper (online), on Monday 11th November. The story can be accessed at https://thenationonlineng.net/ekpenyong-akpabio-chase-19455-votes/

Distortions in The Nation newspaper’s report which was republished and broadcast by many media organisations in Akwa Ibom state and the aspirin prognoses about the rerun which the board of INEC is yet to sit and set out modalities for, have made me feel really sad. From The Nation newspaper, the distortions were retailed merrily by our overeager amateur ‘political and public affairs analysts’. Very many of these ‘let-the-public-be-fooled’ analysts went crazy with those distortions, confusing themselves and some members of the public who rely on them for information. The very sacred role of the media which is to inform the public correctly is under threat. Proper gathering, cross-checking, verification and re-verification of pieces of information should be the hallmark of journalism practice. Information gathering and processing are serious responsibilities that should not be left in the hands of people who do not have the right training, discipline and character.

The Nation newspaper’s report with the headline, “Ekpenyong, Akpabio chase 19,455 votes”, even though it trended on Facebook and became the talking point, was misleading and unfactual; so were the “analyses”, permutations and opinions that drew data from that report. Was the frenzy in retailing the false report another black propaganda from my fair-skinned friend who has become a pro at spinning jaw-breaking deceits? It is pathetic that a few persons whom the public should trust have refused to do their jobs well, hence ended up misinforming the people.

The Nation’s report suggested that 19,455 persons will vote in the rerun election. This is false. The report also claimed that INEC declared 114,973 votes for the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Chris Ekpenyong and 76,917 votes for Godswill Akpabio. That too is false. Again, Ekpenyong did not win in nine local government areas. Results of the election obtained by this writer on Tuesday 12th November, from the Voters Education, Publicity, Gender and Civil Society Liaison department of INEC in Uyo show that Ekpenyong had 118,215 votes while Akpabio had 83,158 votes. The results also show that Ekpenyong won in seven local government areas, while Akpabio won in Ikot Ekpene, Etim Ekpo and Essien Udim. Also, the vote difference between Ekpenyong and Akpabio was 35,057 not 38,085 as published in that report.

Apologies to everyone who was misled by those pieces of misinformation and the skewed analyses its sauced. I am ashamed to note that those pieces of misinformation have amplified the porousness of our media operations and the laziness of some young persons in my state who do nothing than spend all their time on social media copying and pasting whatever thing sits well with their affinities, lies regardless. We live in a community where people are eager to talk and write on issues than verify information on those issues before talking, writing or taking a position on them. I do not want to believe that the misleading headline, wrong figures and “analyses” that were retailed after the judgment were intended to intimidate Akpabio and his men into forfeiting the rerun as someone alleged. However, if that is true, then I would say the chief aim which it succeeded at, was to distract Ekpenyong’s genuine supporters and give them false impression that the rerun will be a walk over for them.

The Appeal Court judgment has given a lifeline to Akpabio to prove that he is not a “coward” as Barr. Emmanuel Enoidem, his estranged friend who could not win his local government in the senatorial election said he is. Akpabio also has a chance to prove that he is not a “national comedian”, as Ini Ememobong, the publicity secretary of the PDP, one of the boys Akpabio handed over to his successor Governor Udom Emmanuel, said. It is a chance for Akpabio to prove that he did not lose the election as he claimed in an interview after Ekpenyong was declared winner by INEC. If the umpire is fair and neutral, the rerun in Essien Udim will be a chance to prove who the real political champion is between Akpabio and Ekpenyong.

With the nullification of the election in Essien Udim, Ekpenyong is left with 114,793 votes while Akpabio has 76,917 votes. Akpabio is going into the rerun with a deficit of 37,876 votes.

The point to note is that it is not only 19,455 voters who were reportedly accredited using the Electronic Card Reader (ECR) in Essien Udim during the main election in February that will be eligible to vote in the rerun as the report by The Nation newspaper suggested. A senior INEC staff who works in the Voters Education, Publicity, Gender and Civil Society Liaison department said every person who has a PVC in Essien Udim will be eligible to vote. He said, “it is wrong to think that only those who were accredited or voted in the main election held months ago that will vote during the rerun. Everyone who has a PVC in the affected local government will be eligible to vote.”

Essien Udim local government area has 105,555 registered voters. The number of voters with PVC is 95,987 (Source: INEC Akwa Ibom state). This means that 95,987 people with PVCs in Essien Udim will be eligible to vote in the rerun. This number is large enough to upturn the result of the election; as such the rerun will not be a walk over for Ekpenyong. So, it is not right regardless of the intent for anyone to confuse him or his supporters. Ekpenyong and Akpabio should brace up for the rerun.

Many commentators on social media have urged Akpabio to forgo the election and concentrate on his appointment as Minister of Niger Delta Affairs. Their plea is built on the fears that the controversial INEC REC in Akwa Ibom, Barr. Mike Igini who has severally been accused of bias against the APC will not hesitate to cook up a new abracadabra to frustrate Akpabio. I do not know how true this claim is! But beyond the “Iginigate”, others hold the opinion that Akpabio should keep his current job. I think Akpabio knows what he wants, and inside sources within the Akpabio’s political camp say the senate election is more about redeeming his honour and ‘political reputation.’

Despite these fears, Akpabio can still pull through with the rerun if there is at least 57 percent turnout of voters and he can poll 82.02 percent of valid votes cast by these voters. During the senatorial election in February this year, voters turnout in Ikot Ekpene senatorial district was above 60 percent going by the results declared by INEC. If at least 57 percent of eligible voters in Essien Udim turn up for the rerun election, this will mean 54,712 people voting. The 82.02 percent of this vote which Akpabio needs to win the election is 44,878. Akpabio can be sure of a win with this figure, provided Ekpenyong does not score beyond 12.08 percent (6,612) of the votes cast. With this, Akpabio will have 121,795 votes and Ekpenyong 121,404 votes. The winning number will be 391 votes. If Akpabio must win in event where voters turnout soars above 60 percent, then Ekpenyong must not score above 15 percent of valid votes cast in the rerun. This is the lifeline, and Akpabio’s biggest hurdle.

By Simon Kolawale

I don’t know about you, but I would say one of the most iconic images of the Buhari administration so far is the one released to the media on Monday, November 4. President Muhammadu Buhari — with a Hausa cap sitting comfortably on his head, a green pen in his right hand and a grin on his face — is seen appending his signature to the amended Deep Offshore and Inland Basin Production Sharing Contract (DOIBPSC) somewhere in London. Bent over by Buhari’s side was Mallam Abba Kyari, his chief of staff, whom I needed some forensic help to identify because he was not wearing his trademark red cap and white flowing gown; rather, he was in suit and cardigan.

Typical of us in Nigeria, we have been discussing everything about the event apart from the significance of it: that Buhari has finally broken a major stranglehold of multinational oil companies on this country. To the uninitiated, I will make the narrative as simple as possible. In 1993, we entered into deep offshore production sharing contracts (PSCs) with multinational oil companies. Because deep offshore was a new thing and it was going to be expensive to explore, we decided to offer very attractive incentives to the companies to encourage them to invest in the fields. It certainly made sense: the technology was expensive and success was not assured.

We decided that if they hit oil beyond 1000 meters, they would not pay any royalty. But they would pay royalty in various percentages for oil explored between 100 meters and before 1000 meters. They would also pay a flat 10% royalty for oil found in the inland basin. There were other juicy incentives in form of lower rate of petroleum profit tax, compared to joint venture partnerships; profit oil split; investment allowance; and cost recovery limits. The long and short of it all is that fortune smiled on the “contractors” and they hit oil earlier than expected. Technology had also improved along the line to make life easier for them. In no time, they started smiling to the bank.

In March 1999, we decided to make a law on PSCs in Nigeria’s deep offshore and inland basin — so that they are not just contracts but covered in our legal statutes as well. We said if crude oil price went as high as $20 per barrel, the terms of the PSCs would be reviewed. We projected that at $20, their costs would be reasonably recovered and Nigeria should therefore sip more from the juice. We also said even if oil did not hit $20, the terms should still be reviewed after 10 years and every five years thereafter — in a way “economically beneficial” to Nigeria. So simple and straightforward, in black and white! Commencement date was 1993 when the first PSCs were signed.

You know what? Less than two months after making the law in 1999, we mysteriously amended it and moved the threshold from 10 years to 15 years! That is the kind of hold the oil companies have on us — of course, with the full help and collaboration of Nigerians. When 15 years arrived in 2008, the terms were not reviewed, even though crude oil was already selling for over $90 per barrel. At a point, the “contractors” was taking 80% of the deep offshore oil and while the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) got just 20%. We were not bothered: those who should defend the national interest were more interested in what-have-you.

The Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), the industry regulator, actually wrote a letter to the oil companies in 2007 informing them of the 2008 timeline for the review, but that was all about it. The national assembly looked the other way. Everything went quiet thereafter. For a law that had automatic triggers — both in timelines and oil price benchmarks — it is incredible that we did nothing for so long. Why? Your guess is as bad as mine. Nigeria’s decision makers and political influencers always kowtow to them at the snap of a finger. We have to blame our own people in any case. But someone somewhere was going to break the spell one day. It was inevitable.

Even though Buhari waited for four years, he should be forgiven for finally doing the needful. Under the reviewed terms, there is a flat royalty rate of 10% starting from 200 meters. The zero royalty for 1000 metres and beyond is now history. Royalty based on oil price is now graduated: the sub-$20 mark remains 0%, but 2.5% will be paid if price goes to between $20 and $60; 4% if between $60 and $100; 8% if between $100 and $150; and 10% if above $150. The other incentives remain untouched. In fact, petroleum profit tax remains 50%, compared to 85% for JVs. We are projecting that the reviewed terms will fetch us an additional $1.4 billion in 2020.

I am, therefore, amazed to be hearing some murmuring from even Nigerians that the new law would discourage investment in deep offshore and that the oil companies would move to other countries in protest. Really? This is very difficult for me to understand. There was a law that should have been implemented since 2008. This law was ignored by every government for whatever reason. Nigeria lost billions of dollars as a result: an estimate puts the short payment at $62 billion in the last 11 years, but a moderate figure would be between $1.6 billion and $2.8 billion per year. How can we be blaming ourselves for implementing our own laws? I honestly cannot understand this.

As for the threat that the oil companies will get angry and leave our shores simply because we decided to make the necessary adjustments to the PSC terms as provided for in the law, I believe that would be an over-reaction. But for the lack of visionary leadership which has plagued Nigeria for decades, shouldn’t we be doing the exploration by ourselves — 63 years after discovering oil? Isn’t it an indictment on us that we are afraid that the big oil companies would angrily leave our shores (or offshore) and we would be left naked? Why should we be afraid to review the PSC terms under which they were engaged for deep offshore exploration in the first place?

Actually, we should be ashamed of ourselves for our legendary incompetence. In the 1970s, three countries — Nigeria, Norway and Malaysia — decided to set up national oil companies to engage in exploration, production and refining. Nigeria created the NNPC, Norway Statoil and Malaysia Petronas. Today, Statoil, now renamed Equinor ASA, and Petronas are among the biggest state-owned oil and gas companies in the world. Equinor ASA and Petronas declare profits in billions of dollars and are among the most valuable companies in the world. Equinor ASA operates in 36 countries; Petronas 35 countries. And our own NNPC? Please don’t get me started this morning!

If NNPC had not been operating as a scam centre for decades, we would not be batting an eyelash over any oil company threatening to exit Nigeria because of the reviewed PSC terms. Unfortunately, when we decided to empower Nigerian entrepreneurs to play big in the upstream sector of the oil industry, our renowned “greed is good” disposition and mismanagement malady expectedly took the centre stage. Some of the so-called entrepreneurs were busy frolicking with the Naomi Campbells and Atlanta celebrities, accumulating private jets like toys, partying in $80 million yachts, rendezvousing in $35 million penthouses and what not. A fool and his money are soon parted.

The amendment of the law was a clinical coup by Buhari. The planning and execution was done in such a way that the oil companies did not have time to kill it or lobby it into coma at the national assembly. Kyari, apparently the arrowhead, is himself a former oilman, so he knows one or two things about the politics of the industry. The guile and determination were such that the amendment was passed by both legislative chambers within 21 days. This again confirms my pet theory — that if Nigerian politicians decide to do something, nothing can stop them. I wish this determination would always be applied to all the things that matter to Nigeria’s progress.

If there is a will, there is always a way. Let them now apply the same determination to healthcare, power, education and security. Above all, we need to start thinking strategically as a nation, to define our interests and to pursue them with one mind. We cannot be doing deals that are skewed against us. Only God knows how many agreements government officials have entered into ostensibly “in the national interest” but purely for personal benefit. Some agreements and laws need to be reviewed or renegotiated. Many government officials sign agreements or pass laws that are clearly hurtful to the public interest but they cannot be bothered. Their god is their stomach.