The War In Ukraine Could Be Devastating For Global Food Security

A visit to the Philips Atakele Bakery in Lagos, Nigeria where the intense work was, until recently, profitable and worthwhile.

However, rising inflation in Nigeria and the war in Ukraine could significantly impact production and soaring costs mean the bakery can only produce half of what it used to.

“Entirely this year, precisely around the time of the bombing of Ukraine, it has affected the supply of yeast which has affected our primary item of production which is white wheat loaf,” Abigail Olufunmilayo Phillips, the bakery’s manager, said. The cost of flour is also volatile, she said.

“Our flow has been very expensive, the prices are changing constantly.”

According to the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine provide around 30% of the wheat and barley consumed globally.

Russia is also one of the world’s largest producers of fertilizer. If the war drags on, economists warn that fertilizer costs could stop some farmers from expanding their crops to make up the shortfall of supply.

On the field of battle in Ukraine, farmers will struggle to plant crops and Ukrainian export ports remain blockaded by Russian warships.

While the United Nations forecasts that grain and vegetable oil prices increases could affect countries globally, there is particular concern about several countries in Africa, countries that are heavily dependent on Russian and Ukrainian imports for their food security.

“The war is starting at one of the worst times,” Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agriculture Business Chamber of South Africa, said.

“Africans are spending a lot on fuel and a lot on food and at this current moment this is a tough time for the continent.”