Nigerians are an excitable lot. It is, therefore, not surprising that the outcome of the August 15 off-cycle Osun governorship election is generating so much buzz. To be sure, the outcome calls for celebration because for the first time in a long while, the will of the people prevailed in an election. And it prevailed not because attempts were not made by the powers-that-be to replicate the September 21, 2024, Edo State governorship election heist. Till date, the beneficiary of that abracadabra, an open sesame of sorts, sits comfortably on the purloined mandate while the actual winner is languishing in political purgatory.
It almost happened in Osun last Saturday but for the determination of the longsuffering people of the State who, individually and collectively, vowed like the biblical Queen Esther that, “If I perish, I perish,” rather than allow the political vampires to trample on them.
And their unflinching resolve paid off handsomely. Officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) behaved themselves. Security operatives respected their calling. Sensing that they may not live to tell tales of their violent exploits, political thugs mobilised from far and near to cause mayhem played safe. By 2 a.m. on Sunday, the game was over. President Bola Tinubu, the leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), called to congratulate Governor Ademola Adeleke, and APC chieftains who had invaded the state to do what they know how best — manipulation of election results — scurried out of town with their tails between their legs: in deep shame, humiliation and utter defeat.
Unlike what happened in Edo two years ago when a deafening silence enveloped the State after INEC announced the dubious result, Osun erupted in celebrations when the INEC returning officer, Prof. Joshua Ogunwole, announced the final result early Sunday morning, declaring Adeleke, the Accord Party candidate, winner with 511,067 votes and victory in 19 of the State’s 30 local governments. The APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, polled 444,815 votes and secured victory in 11 councils, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Najeem Salaam, received a paltry 17,180 votes.
According to the electoral umpire, a total of 1,010,684 voters were accredited. The election recorded 985,079 valid votes, 207 rejected ballots and 1,005,800 total votes cast. With the last of the 15 candidates, Saliu Oyelami of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), garnering only 83 votes, Adeleke’s 511,067 votes was more than the votes of the 14 other candidates put together. He earned the political epaulet on his shoulder.
But I am not ululating despite my excitement at the outcome of the election. Why? Because the Osun governorship election has demonstrated, once again, how jaded Nigeria’s ‘democracy’ is.
On the eve of the election, several APC governors, federal lawmakers, including Senate President Godswill Akpabio, and high-ranking APC leaders with their retinue of aides and heavy security details invaded Osun with sacks of money.
That is crass irresponsibility. Granted, political parties have the constitutional right to campaign, mobilise supporters and deploy legitimate party structures in prosecuting electoral battles, but the motive of those who exported their nuisance value to Osun on Election Day, when campaign had ended, could have been anything but altruistic.
Former President Goodluck Jonathan made that point succinctly on Tuesday when he warned that, “There is a point at which political mobilisation, particularly when it involves the overwhelming presence of serving governors, senior public officials and powerful political actors from across the country on Election Day, can create an atmosphere of apprehension, intimidation, bullying and undue pressure.”
Such egregious political conduct is antithetical to the spirit of free and fair democratic competition and hardly happens in other democratic climes. But I doubt if anyone is surprised. In a country where the president says, “all is fair in politics,” political contests easily become wars of attrition.
I am happy that the APC was worsted but not celebrating because Adeleke’s victory came at a very high cost. A Pre-Election Security Risk Assessment (ESRA) by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) recorded no fewer than 73 election-related violent incidents which resulted in 29 deaths.
The report lamented the strategic deployment of political, criminal, operational, social, coercive and informational pressures to intimidate voters, suppress turnout and influence electoral outcomes. The huge presence of APC governors, lawmakers and party officials who had no business in Osun on August 15 was in furtherance of that devious plot.
Nigeria, the democracy outlier
I am not celebrating because, truth be told, democracy is retreating, not blossoming, in Nigeria, particularly under Tinubu’s pugnacious watch. And the continued militarisation of the electioneering process is proof. In most countries, even in Africa, election days don’t take unnecessary toll on citizens.
Nigeria is an outlier, as Osun proved most conclusively. The State was totally shut down last Saturday, with the police deploying 15,000 personnel that included 30 commissioners — one for each of the 30 local governments — and a deputy inspector-general. The deployment started three weeks prior to the election, together with helicopters and drone units for aerial surveillance. Two Mobile Police Force (MPF) units, each comprising over 60 personnel, were deployed to the INEC headquarters in Osogbo, and each local government area had a unit to boot; a deputy commissioner of police in each LGA, as well as a Mobile Police commander and a PMF commander with the rank of assistant commissioner of police. All these are beside the over 10,000 personnel from other paramilitary agencies like the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC).
To complete the lockdown, the Army was brought in to cordon off all the border roads leading into Osun. Now, consider the fact that all these deployments were for a standalone election in one of the smallest states in the country by landmass. Osun ranks as the ninth smallest state by total land area, covering approximately 9,251 square kilometres.
INEC is not left out. The commission deployed 16 resident electoral commissioners (RECs) from different states of the federation as “helping hands” to the Osun State REC, making them 17 for the election that took place in just 3,700 polling units. So, what will happen in 2027 when elections will hold in all the 36 states simultaneously?
Adeleke’s misplaced appreciation
Though contestation for power in every clime is a serious matter, it is basically a contest of ideas. So, when a politician, recklessly makes an incendiary statement that promotes political killings, one cannot help but shudder.
“From now on, whenever you see Accord members, kill them. I authorise you to kill them. They have wives and children too. This is a Federal Government election. On election day, even if they come with voter cards, we won’t allow them to vote,” he told his thugs on the eve of the Osun poll.
Many Nigerians are appalled that anyone could make such a call. But what can one realistically expect from a member of a political party whose leader claims that all is fair in politics? All being fair in politics, in their book, includes murdering opposition members.
The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has called for his suspension from the Senate and immediate arrest. But I can wager a bet: nothing will happen. He is one of Tinubu’s lickspittles.
And that is the reason why Adeleke’s praise for Tinubu is grossly misplaced. The president and his political party threw the kitchen sink at him in their desperation.
First, the APC-led administration withheld statutory allocations to Osun local governments running into billions of Naira. There was an attempt to use the courts to deregister the Accord Party. When that failed, federal agencies, including the Nigerian police, became unashamedly biased and selective in their enforcement actions in the state. The First Lady, Remi Tinubu, publicly humiliated him in Osogbo. He laughed it off.
Then on August 5, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) imposed a Post-No-Debit (PND) restriction on three of the state’s accounts in order to financially strangle his administration. It only took an “embarrassed” and benevolent Tinubu to order the EFCC to back off. Another deceit from the stable of a man who believes that all is fair in politics.
That is why Adeleke’s praise for Tinubu’s supposed magnanimity in ensuring that democracy “lives on” rankles. The governor’s take on the president’s illusory role in his victory feeds into the harebrained claim of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike that he won because Tinubu allowed a free and fair poll.
That is a lie from the pit of hell. Adeleke won because the good people of Osun staked their all for him. But the very idea that it takes the magnanimity of Tinubu to guarantee a free and fair election should be a cautionary note to Nigerians as 2027 inches closer.
