Almost every administration, since Babangida introduced VISION 2020 in 1992, had suffered from the same illusion of propelling the Nigerian economy to the top 20 globally, in terms of Gross Domestic Product, GDP, within a remarkably short time.
In 1992, when the idea was first floated, Nigeria ranked 32; it is ranked 44 today. Along the way, Abacha and Yar’Adua succumbed to the delusions of economic witch doctors, including two Governors of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Ministers of Finance, promising to make it happen. Nigerians were told right here that it would not happen because the projections were unrealistic and every Nigerian government woefully failed to execute the capital budget – the real engine of growth.
Realising that 2020 had exposed the lie peddled for 28 years, a new set of economic fraudsters have unleashed another economic hoax on the nation. According to them, Nigeria can be expected to become a $1 trillion economy by the year 2030. Some people in government, because it is a great political gimmick, have jumped on the band wagon. Most economists can discern the same old fallacy with a new twist. Mathematically, it is impossible. The promoters know it; but, those embarking on massive deception never allow facts to get in the way of the scam they want to foist on the nation. Fortunately, not everyone in the government has lost their senses. There is some hope.
Finance minister reveals part of truth
“Nigeria needs 10% annual growth to hit the $1trn economy – Finance Minister” – VANGUARD, February 10, 2026.
According to the paper, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, “Nigeria must engineer a minimum annual growth rate of 10 per cent over the next decade to achieve the ambitious goal of a $1 trillion economy.”
The minister might not last long in office. No honest person lasts long in a gang determined to foster falsehood on the people at all costs. That said; her statement requires interpretation for Nigerians unfamiliar with the magic of compound interest – as Albert Einstein, 1879-1955, described a simple aspect of arithmetic taught to us in secondary schools. Most of us have forgotten it. The Nigerian Gross Domestic Product, GDP, stood at $285bn in 2025. Before the year end, the Federal Government had sent in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework, MTEF, to the National Assembly, NASS, projecting the nation’s expected growth rates for 2026, 2027 and 2028 – averaging 4.5%. Projections for 2029 and 2030 have not been made; but, it is doubtful if the GDP will jump from 5 per cent in 2028 to 10 per cent in 2029 and 2030.
Why $1trn economy will remain a mirage
“Budget bottleneck: Capital projects hit the wall as N10tn funds stall” – News Report, February 18, 2026.
Two weeks ago, in my article titled: Budgetary Mess on Health is a Killer, it was pointed out on these pages how out of N218bn budgeted in 2025 for capital expenditure, the Health Ministry received a mere N36 million or 0.000165 per cent. From reports available now, the Health Ministry was extremely fortunate; a few Ministries, Transport, Women Affairs and the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, which received N202 million out of N3.53bn, or 0.57%, were more fortunate. Meanwhile, the Ministries of Interior and Housing received zero allocation; so did security organizations: the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, National Security Adviser’s office and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC. NSA’s zero allocation was frightening.
The “Permanent Secretary, Special Services, Office of the National Security Adviser, Mohammed Sanusi, grumbled that despite the state of emergency that President Bola Tinubu declared on national security, “it is disheartening to note that the security and intelligence agencies’ budget is still subject to the vagaries of the envelope system of budgeting, rather than genuine needs and requirements”.
He claimed that the capital votes allocated to the security agencies in the 2024 and 2025 budgets were never released, adding: “This has impacted very negatively on their capacity to procure materials and modern security equipment, as well as their operational capabilities.” (VANGUARD, February 24, 2026). The Ministries of Works and Power were not spared from the despair “zero allocation” breeds among officials charged with monumental responsibilities; but denied the funds needed to discharge them.
What is concerning about all these is the fact that capital budget funds were carried over from 2024 to 2025; yet the defence and security sectors received zero allocation for two consecutive years, 2024 and 2025. There is little comfort to be derived from the announcement that 70 per cent of 2025 budgets would be deferred to 2026. The mind-sets which have brought us to the brink of disaster nationwide remain in control.
The Minister of Health, while disclosing that his Ministry received only 0.000165 of the capital appropriations, was kind enough to inform Nigerians that 100 per cent of their salaries and other entitlements were paid. The handwriting was on the wall by July of 2025; when actual aggregate capital expenditure was 4.1 per cent of the budget. The situation worsened as the year progressed.
As every economic expert knows, recurrent expenditures serve the needs of all the workers in the public sector; while capital expenditure on roads, hospitals constitutes the real dividends to the people. Roads, schools, hospitals, power supply, water, security, transportation, remain the foundations of national and individual welfare. Otherwise, the citizenry wallows in perpetual misery and deprivation. Hope becomes a mirage. Governments turn to propaganda instead of facing the harsh realities requiring attention. Expectedly, several fortune hunters have stepped up to provide the narrative which would nurture the illusion that Nigeria can join Saudi Arabia and Switzerland – among the $1 trillion economies within a short time. They are fully aware that most Nigerians are forgetful and illiterate. They will not allow facts to get in the way of propaganda.
False prophets of prosperity
“Why power supply remains at 4,000MW despite 15,000MW capacity – GenCos”- VANGUARD, February 24, 2026.
“Nigeria’s power sector on brink of collapse –GenCos” – Tribune February 24, 2026.
On May 29, 2015, President Buhari declared that “4,000MW of power supplied to Nigerians was unacceptable.” In February 2026, almost 11 years after that declaration, power supply remains 4,000MW per day. More disturbingly, the nation is stuck at that abysmal level of performance for years to come. Globally, no nation with $500bn GDP generates and distributes less than 60,000MW. Certainly, nobody expects Nigeria to reach that mark in the next 20 years – given current rates of capital allocation.
