IMF Raises Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast To 3.4% For 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth, raising the forecast for 2025 to 3.4 percent. This marks a 0.4 percentage point increase from the earlier estimate of 3.0 percent made in April 2025.

Similarly, the IMF has revised Nigeria’s growth outlook for 2026 to 3.2 percent, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the 2.7 percent forecast in April.

These updates were published in the July 2025 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), which also reflected improved global economic prospects. According to the report, global economic growth is now expected to reach 3.0 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026.

The 2025 global forecast is an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to April’s report, while the 2026 forecast is up by 0.1 percentage points.

In the same report, the IMF also revised upward its outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, projecting regional growth of 4.0 percent in 2025 and 4.3 percent in 2026. These figures represent respective increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points over the April 2025 forecasts of 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent.

“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 percent, before picking up to 4.3 percent in 2026,” the IMF stated.

Explaining the reasons behind the upward revisions, the IMF’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the improved global outlook reflects “stronger-than-expected front-loading, lower tariff rates compared to early April, and easier financial conditions, including a weaker US dollar and fiscal expansion in some jurisdictions.”

However, he also warned that overall risks remain on the downside, as noted in the April WEO.

“Risks remain tilted to the downside. A breakdown in trade talks or renewed protectionism could dampen growth globally and fuel inflation in some countries. Persistent uncertainty may weigh on investment, while geopolitical tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities pose additional threats. Financial conditions have eased, but they could tighten abruptly, especially in case of threats to central bank independence. On the upside, breakthroughs in trade negotiations could boost confidence, and structural reforms could lift long-term productivity,” added Gourinchas.

In response, the IMF urged governments to adopt sound economic policies to strengthen confidence, ensure sustainability, and maintain stability across financial systems.

“Reducing policy uncertainty is essential. This is especially true for trade policy, where the global economy needs clear, transparent and predictable rules. Many countries need to address fiscal vulnerabilities and rebuild fiscal buffers even if they face increased spending needs. Central banks must maintain price and financial stability while preserving independence. Exchange rate flexibility remains key, even if some tailored interventions may be appropriate in certain cases in line with our integrated policy framework. Finally, structural reforms that ease policy tradeoffs and support long-term growth remain essential to long-term prosperity,” said Gourinchas.